Israel Analysis Is Lebanon becoming safer? By Jim Fletcher
Below is a fascinating article found on watch.org, written by Jim Fletcher with information from an insider who has lived in Israel for many years. Lots to break down and chew on, but exactly what I have feared about the Middle East and the regional chaos that always seem to be bubbling beneath the surface. Rh
My friend Brian Schrauger is an invaluable source for facts on the ground in Israel. For several years, he has been a journalist over there (he’s from the U.S.). He is my go-to source for what is really going on there. His recent interview with Lt. Col. Sarit Zehavi was most enlightening.
She is the founder of the Alma Research and Education Center, and a serious Lebanon analyst. In the interview, she made a couple fascinating points that, again, the West does not know because we aren’t there. Brian also added a real human element by talking about his beloved daily walks; a year ago he was on a walk and all of a sudden, noticed rockets overhead. He was not near a shelter and hoped he wouldn’t be hit by debris.
The situation in the North has been chaotic, at best. Zehavi noted that actually, children are more resilient than the adults, in coping with the attacks.
For eight months, Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel. For 14 months after Oct. 7, life in that area was unbearable. So, what about Syria and Lebanon? As Brian pointed out, “All the attention is on Iran.”
Well, the answer is, Syria and Lebanon continue to be lethal threats. Unfortunately. The beeper operation, the brilliant, James Bond-ish actions by the IDF degraded Hezbollah. They didn’t eradicate the terror state.
Now, in the interview, Zehavi did discuss Iran.
“Trump made a promise. He didn’t have to make a promise, but he did. If he will fail to keep his promise, it will be a great damage to his reputation.”
“I do understand his position.” She says there is not a real opposition within Iran. Zehavi makes an interesting point about Afghanistan and Iraq, about U.S. involvement there. If we hadn’t been there, those two countries would today have huge missile stockpiles and nukes. So that gave me a perspective I had not had. Prior to hearing that, I, like many people, were frustrated with the withdrawal and considered much of the Bush Doctrine to, in the end, have been shortsighted. But Zehavi makes a superb point that our involvement in those countries did yield positive results. At least those two countries today, while deeply hostile to the West, do not have the capabilities to harm us.
“We have to be very consistent, thorough, and brave,” Zehavi said. If Iran is not confronted now, we’ll have to do it in 10 years.
Back to Israel’s northern borders.
Reconstruction of Hezbollah is well underway. “Hezbollah is one step ahead” of Israel in reconstructing. She says Israel killed only 20 percent of the field commanders for Hezbollah. “We need to make sure they cannot make decisions.”
On a good note, Hezbollah cannot launch an invasion, as Hamas did. Problem is, Hezbollah has had decades to burrow-into the system. “The Lebanese government is far from taking on Hezbollah. They claim they disarmed 10,000 rockets, but where is the confirmation?” No matter what we hear in the West, the Lebanese government and the armed forces are not doing the job.
During the height of the northern tensions, 60,000 Israelis evacuated for more than a year.
Additionally, Hezbollah continues to plant itself within the government. Brian says it is the hope of the Trump Administration that this will not happen, but there is no real effort to thwart that now.
Near the Lebanon border, Israeli houses are being built with safe rooms, so multiple agendas and models are being used by Israel to protect its citizens.
As to Syria…Brian says the leader looks Western. Zehavi says it’s much more problematic with Syria. Very much worried that in 10 years, Syria will be very bad. “Assad was a dictator but not motivated by religious reasons.” This stretches all the way back to the father of Bashir Assad, Hafez Assad (the leader during the turbulent 70s and 80s). Very bad guys, yes, but not religious ideologues like bin Laden, etc.
Zehavi noted that “If you involve Islamic radicalism in the government and military, eventually you will get terror.” This is the crux of the problem in Syria and Lebanon.
Al Quaeda and ISIS are becoming stronger in Syria, she says. Zehavi pointed to Ahmed al-Sharaa building radical schools, 70 schools, throughout Syria. Educating future generations to be radical Islamists. The new Syrian president has not reformed at all!
She cited Al-Sharaa’s interview with Christiane Amanpour (the longtime journalist who is no friend of the West), in which she asked him straight out, “Are you a terrorist?” Zehavi said you would think he would say I was a terrorist, once I was young and stupid. But he didn’t do that. Instead, he blamed America and Israel!
What are we doing propping this guy up?
It seems to me that Western weakness is contributing mightily to these problems. It is deeply troubling that we have Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner running point on all this.
All in all, an eye-opening interview. We must remain vigilant, my friends. It feels very much like plugging leaks in a dam designed to keep out terrorists.
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