Things are changing so fast during this war.  This is going to be interesting to see how the regional alliances handle the defeat of Iran, especially while old friends, or at least friends that hated Israel, are now expelling old friends from their country.  Trump and Netanyahu have certainly turned the Middle East on its ear.  Even Turkey is telling Iran to be careful in targeting their country.  With victory in sight, if not already there, old cautious allies of Iran are turning like rats running off a sinking ship.  Good to see. Rh

The Qataris have reportedly delivered an eviction warning to the Hamas leadership in Doha. After Iran struck their former ally, Qatar asked their guests to condemn the attack. In a serious violation of guest etiquette, Hamas refused.

Before we get too excited, let me remind everyone that Qatar has threatened to do this before. Multiple reports said Hamas leaders left for Turkey after a Qatari directive in April 2024, and there were rumors of Doha “reconsidering” Hamas’s presence in November 2023; March, May and October of 2024; and a few times in 2025 as well.

Hamas doesn’t seem to have many options for relocation. They require certain qualities in a host: friendly to terror, immune to Israeli strikes and willing to accept the stigma of their presence. There is no shortage of countries in the region with an agnostic view of terrorism; far fewer that Israel wouldn’t strike. But that last factor seems to be the trickiest to find. Even Turkey—which has no problem discreetly supporting Hamas and is the most immune to Israeli strikes in the region—is hesitant to take the American heat that would come with allowing Hamas leaders to walk in through the front door.

The truth is, it’s a great deal for Qatar. For the price of a few hotel rooms, they get to be a key player in one of the world’s most important negotiations. They are America’s go-to terror mediators, so hosting Hamas is more expected than scandalous. Then again, now that all the hostages have returned, Hamas’s value has depreciated somewhat. Still, I put the odds at 60-40 that they stay.

Qatar may keep them around, but that doesn’t mean it will advocate on their behalf or give them money. Hamas leaders are reportedly terrified that, with Iran looking unreliable, the loss of Qatari support would be a devastating blow to the organization.

Israel’s perspective has always been that among the terror groups on its borders, Hezbollah was the one most likely to collapse with the loss of Iranian support. Hamas existed long before Iran’s patronage, and it was widely believed it would survive after the Islamic Republic’s fall. But the panic among its leaders indicates it might be easier to dismantle an independent Hamas than previously thought.

It would be remiss not to mention that Iran seems to be more effective than Israel at disposing of Hamas leaders. When Israel struck Doha last September, Hamas had to change hotels. When Iran struck Qatar, Hamas suddenly found itself homeless.

Deep beneath the ground near the Iranian city of Isfahan lies the ayatollahs’ treasure chest. Lead-lined, it contains Iran’s most valuable asset: more than 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium.

The world’s most radioactive buried treasure was entombed by the U.S. and Israel during the June war and is thought to be inaccessible without a large excavation effort. But according to a recent U.S. intelligence report, there remains a “very narrow access point” through which the Iranians—or the U.S.—could potentially retrieve the prize.

I’m not being playful when I say this is the treasure of the regime. It cost them hundreds of billions to create, and it is their most powerful weapon—though more in negotiations than in destructive potential. That makes it valuable to the U.S. and Israel as well: Take away the uranium and you remove a load-bearing beam in the regime’s infrastructure.

Fortunately, pulling up IRGC-branded moving trucks is not an option. The site is watched from above by the U.S. and Israel; any Iranian attempt at extraction would be met with an excessive amount of munitions.

An allied operation faces similar challenges. Four hundred kilograms of uranium doesn’t fit easily into a backpack. Any operation would require significant forces around the “very narrow access point” to repel what would likely be a substantial Iranian counterattack.

But Trump hasn’t ruled out sending in special forces, and rumors from both Israel and the U.S. indicate that such an operation is being considered.

Short of Trump walking into the presidential palace in Tehran, victory is a hard thing to photograph. But Netanyahu and Trump shaking hands in front of Iran’s enriched uranium would come pretty close.

Important clarification regarding the strikes in Iran

It is very important to emphasize something that many people outside the region may not fully understand.

Israel is not targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure – the refineries, the production facilities, or the systems that would be needed for the country’s future recovery.

Instead, the strikes are focused primarily on oil storage reservoirs that the regime uses to finance its war machine and sustain its military operations.

Why does this matter?

Because the goal is not to destroy Iran’s ability to function as a nation in the future. The goal is to deny the regime the financial lifeline it uses to fund terror, missiles, and regional aggression.

By targeting the regime’s accessible oil reserves – rather than the infrastructure itself – the pressure is placed directly on the ruling system, not on the long-term future of the Iranian people.

This distinction is extremely important.

One day, when the current regime is gone, Iran will still have the infrastructure it needs to rebuild and prosper. The prospect for a better future for the Iranian people must remain intact.

This war is not against the people of Iran.

It is against a regime that has brought suffering to its own people and instability to the entire region.  Amit Segal

I hope Amit is right, I think he is.  He has contacts inside Israel’s government and military.  There has to be some sort of prosperity going forward for the new regime.  The US and Israel can’t fund a new government, and neither will the Arabs.  At least I don’t think so, although Turkey just might be a help to try and get into the region closer to Israel.  But nevertheless that is a decision for a future date.  War is expected to last another 2-3 weeks.  Rh.