Tag: military

Inside Israel Analysis

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Forwarded from Amir Tsarfati, a Messianic Jew, author and former IDF soldier. Great take on the supposed deal with Iran. Enjoy the read. Rh

After several hours of confusion and uncertainty, it’s time to bring some order to the situation.

What exactly did Trump agree to?

The agreement rests on two very lean principles:

“The Strait of Hormuz must remain open to free navigation, and Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.”

Trump has insisted in nearly every other post that Iran will not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, while simultaneously pushing to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to unrestricted maritime traffic at any cost.

But why was Trump so eager to reach such a minimal agreement? Why did he pressure Israel not to interfere, even at the cost of merging the various fronts and exposing soldiers to greater danger? Why did J.D. Vance, who has opposed military intervention, suddenly move to the forefront while Rubio faded into the background? And why has no one managed to offer a convincing explanation beyond references to the World Cup, birthdays, the midterm elections, and other superficial reasons for this apparent obsession?

Most importantly: What does Trump intend to do with Iran during the 60-day ceasefire he has effectively bought for himself?

It is possible – and I emphasize that this is an informed analysis of events, not verified information—that the answers lie in what took place in Beijing during the visit held last month (May 13–15, 2026).

Trump arrived in China after not meeting President Xi for nine years. Over the previous year, he had reshaped the global economic landscape through tariffs, supply chains, and trade routes in an effort to reduce China’s dominance and push it into a corner. He had even postponed the visit for a month because of the operation against Iran.

However, Trump arrived in Beijing in a weaker position than he had planned. He had hoped to come as the victor over Iran and force China to accept new trade oversight mechanisms, agreements on rare earth minerals, and AI cooperation that would secure American leadership of the global economy.

But the Chinese did not cooperate.

Instead, they threatened escalation and even the possibility of a wider global conflict, particularly through pressure on Taiwan. They were also deeply concerned about the loss of cheap Iranian oil supplies that the United States had disrupted.

As is often the case between great powers, the talks did not collapse. Some significant deals were reached – most notably Boeing’s sale of 200 aircraft to China. But the joint statement was remarkably brief, containing only one key sentence:

“The Strait of Hormuz must remain open to free navigation, and Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.”

Those are precisely the same principles that now define the agreement with Iran.

Trump is persistent and determined to continue building what he sees as a new global order under American economic leadership. After encountering Chinese resistance to broader agreements, he may have settled for a simpler bargain: oil in exchange for a non-nuclear Iran.

Like a businessman honoring a deal, he returned determined to fulfill his part of the bargain.

From that perspective, everything became acceptable: pressuring Israel to lower its profile, allowing Qataris, Pakistanis, and Saudis to serve as mediators, and bringing in J.D. Vance – whom the Iranians and Pakistanis reportedly trust more than Rubio or Witkoff. The overriding objective was simply to secure signatures and an agreement.

If this theory is correct—and if Trump did not simply turn against Israel in favor of Qatar and Pakistan – then Iran itself is not his primary concern, despite the fact that it allegedly tried to assassinate him only two years ago.

Instead, he will use these two months to complete his side of the understanding with China: ensure that Iran remains non-nuclear, after which Israel, America’s exemplary ally, will return to the position it has occupied over the past year and a half.

As for a formal nuclear agreement: if it succeeds, all the better. By Amir Tsarfati

Deal Was Made: A Bad Deal Uninforceable

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President Trump: The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP

As Churchill wrote to Lord Moyne right before the Munich agreement:

“We seem to be very near the bleak choice between War and Shame. My feeling is that we shall choose Shame, and then have War thrown in a little later on even more adverse terms than at present.”

Americas chose shame

War will come a little later Amir Tsarfati

For whatever reason, Trump cowered. Mark my words, this war is not over. The West is ceding democracies all across Europe and even in the U.S. The rise of Islam is here. J. D Vance, Kushner and Witkoff are the instigators of this defeat. The art of a bad deal!

Very sad day in America. Rh

War Update

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Trump capitulations on a fantasy deal with Iran has emboldened them to re start the missile launches toward Israel. Once again how does one make a deal with terrorist? This should have been finished. Rh

Israel’s finance minister Smotrich intends to demand in this morning’s security cabinet meeting to turn the equation that Iran tried to create between itself and Lebanon on its head and focus mainly on a strong response in Lebanon. For every Iranian missile, dozens of buildings in Dahieh should be taken down.

According to his equation, two or three hundred buildings in Beirut should have fallen last night. This is much easier, more accessible, and more effective than a response in Iran, including taking advantage of the opportunity with long-term gains for the security of northern residents, like the “money plow” under which the IDF destroys the contact villages in southern Lebanon, so that Hezbollah will beg the Iranians to stop.

Conversely, this could also bring the Iranians to be flexible in negotiations with the Americans, after a month and a half of their insistence and American backing down. In such a case, Trump would also appreciate it, and Israel would again earn points with him for initiative and boldness that change reality. Trump always likes to take credit for others’ successes, and this is not bad for Israel.

Smotrich suggests saving the armaments and efforts against Iran for the moment when we decide to go after the energy infrastructures that will paralyze Iran and cripple its economy. In his opinion, it is a shame to waste capabilities on exchanges of blows within standard equations. In cost-benefit tests, strikes in nearby Lebanon are much more efficient than strikes in distant Iran that are not part of a comprehensive move where you go all the way without limitations.

An interesting thesis. Even more interesting if Netanyahu adopts it or if he has another ace up his sleeve.

(Amit Segal)

Deja Vu All Over Again

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I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of Türkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran, and all things related to a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE. An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

President DONALD J. TRUMP

Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of FDD, a conservative Washington, D.C.-based nonpartisan policy institute:

Epic Fury lasted 40 days.

The ceasefire has now lasted 60.

The U.S. and Israeli militaries won the war. But if the reported terms are accurate, the regime is now winning the ceasefire.

Another 60-day extension would only deepen Tehran’s advantage.

Ok so what we have is a preliminary agreement? An agreement largely been negotiated? Remember the Gaza peace deal of the century? Israel was within a couple of weeks of total victory, and Trump jumps in signs a ceasefire and demands Hamas give up their weapons. They never did. Ok now we start a war and are within a couple of weeks of finishing off Iran, we stop and start negotiating? We just left the dissidents in Iran up a creek without a paddle. Will this deal go the way of the Gaza ceasefire? Yep. I just don’t understand, please make me understand it. As long as Iran still have capabilities to make and deploy nuclear weapons, the won. They went toe to toe to Big Satan and won.

I feel the worst for Israel. They will have to deal with them in the near future. Mark my words, this isn’t over, in fact the fighting may have to begin again. When it does I hope Trump has learned his lesson and takes care of business. As of now back to status quo. Rh

Update:

Details of the signed MOU:

– Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen

– Iran will not charge transit fees

– US won’t pay any money to Iran

– Sanction relief on Iranian oil

– Lebanon is part of the ceasefire

– 60 days to negotiate nuclear issues

Per Amir Tsarfati

The American Rebellion Against AI Is Gaining Steam

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By Amrith Ramkumar,  Katherine Blunt and Lindsay Ellis

The only thing growing faster than the artificial-intelligence industry may be Americans’ negative feelings about it—as former Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt saw on Friday.

Delivering a commencement address at the University of Arizona, Schmidt told students the “technological transformation” wrought by artificial intelligence will be “larger, faster and more consequential than what came before.” Like some other graduation speakers mentioning AI, Schmidt was met with a chorus of boos.

In one poll after another in recent weeks, respondents have overwhelmingly voiced concerns about AI, a challenge to claims by industry executives that their technology would gain popularity by improving people’s lives.

For full article: The Wall Street Journal

Just recently I read another article that bemoaned the fact that AI would not only wreck havoc with “white” collar jobs, but also “blue” collar jobs as well. My main issue with AI is the fact we don’t fully, maybe we do in some high and mighty circles, understand the rapid growth of the industry. Many who pioneered AI are sounding the alarm. ⏰ But, it may be too late to put the evil genius back into the bottle. Especially when it has a mind of its own. Rh

Movement With Iran

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Reports that the U.S. and Iran are at the closest point to an agreement since the war began.

• The naval blockade by the US and Iran will be gradually lifted during the detailed negotiation period.

• The US will commit in the memorandum of understanding to gradually remove sanctions and release tens of billions of dollars from freezing.

• Negotiations are still ongoing regarding the duration of the uranium enrichment freeze. Three sources said the freeze will last at least 12 years, and one source estimated the final result will be 15 years. Additionally, the US wants to include a clause in the agreement stating that any Iranian violation regarding uranium enrichment will extend the freeze period.

• Two sources claimed that Iran will agree to remove the highly enriched uranium in its possession from the country.

• The United States expects to receive Iran’s response within the next 48 hours on several key points in the draft framework agreement.

Trump to PBS: Trump to PBS network: It is possible that we will reach a deal before my visit to China next week. There is a good chance to end the war with Iran. I don’t think I will send Witkoff and Kushner for talks.

More from Trump to PBS: The enriched uranium will be transferred to the US as part of the deal. Iran will not use underground facilities. If there is no agreement, we will bomb them to hell

IMO – it will never happen. Iran’s leadership is fractured. Hardliners only want delay, the more moderate faction does want some type of deal. What will Trump do? Who knows, Mr preference is take ‘em out. Rh

Update:

Bottom line:

Once again, the political level of the Islamic Republic is making promises to the Americans that the military level – which is de facto ruling the country – is not in agreement with.

Netanyahu

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Netanyahu

By Jim Fletcher

Below is a powerful tribute to a roaring lion for the nation of Israel. Some love him, most hate or despise him. He and Trump, (IMO) are much alike. Raised for such a time as this, together they have proved a valiant and resolute pair of compatriots against the evils of the day in the Middle East, especially there firm conviction that Iran must be de-clawed. Never count either one out. Cheers and God’s best to them both. Rh

I well remember asking a new Israeli friend in 1996 how to pronounce the name of a rising politician, one running for prime minister of Israel against the old lion, Shimon Peres.

The new lion would do quite well for himself.

Benjamin Netanyahu, against all odds, beat Peres in 1996 and though he lost to the hapless Ehud Barak three years later, he re-emerged later to become Israel’s longest-serving PM. 

(When I say “hapless,” I mean that Barak was as a politician. As a commander within the IDF’s elite counter-terrorism unit, Barak was truly elite. Israel’s fighters-turned-politicians often do maddening things once in office. Netanyahu himself has bucked that trend and has served with distinction.)

Netanyahu was hated from the beginning, although he’s always had a strong base within the Likud Party (somewhat akin to our Republicans). Raised on a strong diet of Zionism from Benzion and Cela, he and his brothers have been devoted lions for the state of Israel. I remember in Bibi’s book, A Durable Peace, he described a training maneuver that took his unit through the Negev Desert, emerging at Masada one night. Sweating, breathing hard as he looked at the ancient fortress, Netanyahu felt a real link to his ancestors. This is the essence of Zionism and has served him well as he navigated evil leaders like Arafat, Clinton, and all UN chiefs. 

This week, I thought he got a nice tribute via X, as @liberallikudnik wrote:

“Begin grew old and weary and handed over all of Sinai to Egypt. Rabin grew old and weary and brought armed terrorists into the heart of the country. Sharon grew old and weary and turned Gaza into Judenrein and a terrorist state. Netanyahu in their age, a hero like a lion, full of vigor, building in Judea and Samaria, leading the IDF back to Gaza, to Lebanon and Syria, and eliminating the regime of evil in Iran. May he be healthy.”

True enough. Although I take exception to the partial description of Menachem Begin, a truly elite PM for Israel. As the winner of the premiership in 1977, leading Likud, Begin has arguably been Israel’s most religious prime minister. He was a great man. Yes, he tired at the end, but his mind and body were spent fighting as a Zionist. May his memory be a blessing.

I would say Yitzhak Rabin, as perhaps Israel’s least religious leader, made some fundamental diplomatic errors, yet. Sharon inexplicably emptied Gaza of Jews, but I suspect that had a lot to do with intense pressure from the George Bush gang. Among the weakest Israeli PMs—if you can call Naftali Bennett’s and Yair Lapid’s five minutes in office actual leaders—are those two, ideological foes that still came together in their hatred of Netanyahu.

New Israeli elections will emerge this fall and as usual, like clockwork, Netanyahu’s political obituary is being polished up as we speak. It can be added to the dozens more than have come before. It’s a bit like Oklahoma and Texas, or vice versa, not having a chance against the other in the Cotton Bowl. Then…the inevitable upset.

Benjamin Netanyahu has been criticized, heavily, by literally everyone. He has a polarizing personality, but I would argue not of his own making. I haven’t always liked his decisions, but everyone does that. I will go to my grave believing that he is much more the young man that sat around the family dinner table in the Old Katamon neighborhood in Jerusalem. As I’ve written before, I knew the old man the last decade he lived, and a couple times walked a few blocks over to gaze on the sublime scene of Jerusalem’s Old City in the moonlight. My wonderful conversations with Benzion make it clear to me all three Netanyahu boys will take Zion into their hearts for the duration. All three served in the same unit, Sayeret Matkal. 

At present, there is no one fit to tie Netanyahu’s shoelaces among their political echelon. 

Here’s to King Bibi!

Trump Blinked

~ Randy Harris ~ Leave a comment

I am a supporter of Trump, however he just made the two biggest mistakes he will regret.  With all his talk and bluster and egomania he portrays, he blinked.  Israel was two weeks away from total victory in Gaza, ceasefire, Hamas is rebuilding as we speak,  Never did lay down their arms.  Still recruiting, the “Board of Peace” is a joke.  Typical diplomacy.

Here we are in Iran, two weeks away from total victory, another pause.  Iran now feels imbolden, they will hunker down and rebuild.  China and Russia are more than ready to send all the weaponry they need.  

Just minutes after the so-called halt to hostilities, Iran sent multiple missiles into Israel.  Attack also in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait.  

It has begun, the re-supply:

China and Russia at the UN announced their intention to provide extensive aid to Iran within the next 24 hours, claiming that it is assistance for the country’s reconstruction and not for the arms industry.

However, according to reports in the Russian media, China has already sent 3 cargo ships carrying weapons, while Russian military aid planes are currently on their way to Isfahan. And military aid planes from Belarus are on their way to Tehran!

Trump’s 15 demands to Iran:

 1. Dismantle all major nuclear facilities

 2. End all uranium enrichment on Iranian soil

 3. Transfer enriched uranium stockpiles out of Iran

 4. Accept intrusive international inspections everywhere

 5. Permanently renounce any nuclear weapons pathway

 6. Suspend ballistic missile development

 7. Stop production of long-range missiles

 8. End drone transfers and military exports to proxies

 9. Cut support to Hezbollah

 10. Cut support to Hamas

 11. Cut support to Iraqi Shiite militias and proxy groups

 12. End weapons transfers to the Houthis

 13. Fully reopen and secure the Strait of Hormuz

 14. Stop threatening regional shipping and Gulf states

 15. Accept a broader regional de-escalation framework, including limits on military escalation with Israel

Iran’s 10 demands to Trump:

 1. A binding guarantee that the U.S. and its allies will not strike Iran again

 2. A permanent end to hostilities, not just a temporary ceasefire

 3. An end to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon

 4. Full lifting of U.S. sanctions

 5. Protection for Iran’s regional proxies and allied militias

 6. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian conditions

 7. A transit fee reportedly around $2 million per ship, shared with Oman

 8. Compensation or reconstruction support for war damage inside Iran

 9. Recognition of Iran’s regional security interests

 10. A broader framework for long-term negotiations without immediate surrender of core strategic capabilities

⸻

Insanity is expecting peace from radicals.  If this is signed it just made the US a laughingstock in the world community.  

This may be the last straw for me.  Please let a grownup talk some sense into the President.

Boot Prints on Kharg Island??

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To the casual observer of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran it seems we are on the verge of destroying Iran and declaring total victory.  In one sense that is a factual statement.  On the other hand there are still outstanding objectives.  

This is the third time I have seen a major escalation of the military in the Middle East.  I remember Bush Sr. stopping troops on their way to Baghdad.  Bush Jr. wanted to spread democracy in the Middle East.  Air superiority is wonderful, but to really conquer a country in today’s stealth environment of terror proxies, it will probably take boots on the ground.

After being of draft age during Viet Nam, that statement of ground troops is chilling to me.  Limited in and out scenarios work best for the American people, and let’s be real, all war and actions militarily need the support of the citizens back home.  Every politician looks at polls and the ever changing attitudes of the American people.

With that being said I fully expect troops to be deployed over Kharg Island, and also possible in Isfahan where the supposed nuclear material was secretly stashed by Iran.  Some at 60% enrichment, far above any civilian use. When you throw in the Strait of Hormuz, vitally important, these are the choke points that cause Iran to think they can hold out.  remember as Trump has said, “they are great negotiators”.  Their great negotiation positions come from not caring about their people and the willingness to sacrifice everything to hang on to power. Plus they lie and stall while waiting out their adversaries.

With all that said, we must finish the job or this happens again.  Do what it takes to effect regime change and give the Iranians a chance at a real life.  Ground troops are all that I foresee to be the answer.  Holding Kharg Island and clearing the Strait, makes Iran’s ability to hang on dissipate quickly.

One final note: expect to see something dramatic, (ground troops?) after the present halt for negotiations.  We aren’t ready yet to go in, but to me, knowing I am not a military expert or one who served, but one that follows the experts who analyze, it seems to be the likely scenario.

My prayer is that this can be done without boots on the ground and that negotiations would cause Iran to give up.  Well the devil never gives up, neither does his allies.  Iran is noted for their lying and the ability to camouflage their intentions.  They are master negotiators only because the western mind doesn’t understand their tribal religious mindset.  Western governments have aided and abetted Iran too long, including our previous Presidents.  Obama and Biden left a total mess for Trump.  Probably their intention.  

We are at a tipping point.  America’s future and the future of regional geopolitics in the Middle East rely on what happens next. I can’t wait to see how this all plays out. What a time to be alive.  

We are “Living in Prophetic Times”.  Pray for our troops and pray for the peace of Jerusalem. Maranatha!  Rh

Trump Statement

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President Trump:

I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

President Donald J. Trump

Interesting, who blinks first?  Obviously Iran needs a deal regardless of what they may put out for public consumption.  Trump has declared to destroy oil infrastructure soon.  Don’t think Trump is bluffing, but obviously complete and total surrender with the US getting all the processed uranium out of Iran might just stop this war.  America has to make sure Iran is defeated and can not develop more nuclear material or work on ballistic missiles.  That should be a given.

Following Trump’s announcement of talks, markets reacted immediately. Oil prices dropped by 8%, but futures rose by 2-3%.

The back and forth continues. Please Trump don’t stop until you have all the objectives accomplished,  Don’t Bush this wart, by stopping too soon and have issues in the future!

  • Fars News Agency quotes an Iranian source: “There are no direct or indirect negotiations with Trump. He backed down after hearing our threats.”  Not sure if true or not, but Iran is notorious for lying about talks and negotiations.  So take it for what it is.
  • Reuters: Washington updated Israel on its talks with Tehran, and Israel is likely expected to follow the US and suspend any attacks on power plants and energy infrastructure in Iran.

Trump on Iran

  • “Well, they’re gonna have to get themselves better public relations people. We’ve had very strong talks. Mr Witkoff and Kushner had them. They went perfectly.” – Trump on Iran denying that any talks happened.
  • Trump: “If we have a deal with Iran, we will go down to the nuclear facilities and take the uranium ourselves”. 
  • We want no enrichment, and we also want the enriched uranium.
  • If this happens, it is a great start for Iran to build itself back.
  • We want the nuclear dust. We’re going to want that, and I think we’re going to get that. 
  • We’ve agreed to that—yeah, we’re going to; we’ve agreed to that.

Well there you have, it if Trump is telling the truth he just doubled down on his requirements to end the war.  I have no reason to doubt him, but….remember Iran is a bunch of lying extremists.  Their religion allows them to lie for the greater good of Islam.  Stay tuned.  Rh