War Update

Trump capitulations on a fantasy deal with Iran has emboldened them to re start the missile launches toward Israel. Once again how does one make a deal with terrorist? This should have been finished. Rh

Israel’s finance minister Smotrich intends to demand in this morning’s security cabinet meeting to turn the equation that Iran tried to create between itself and Lebanon on its head and focus mainly on a strong response in Lebanon. For every Iranian missile, dozens of buildings in Dahieh should be taken down.

According to his equation, two or three hundred buildings in Beirut should have fallen last night. This is much easier, more accessible, and more effective than a response in Iran, including taking advantage of the opportunity with long-term gains for the security of northern residents, like the “money plow” under which the IDF destroys the contact villages in southern Lebanon, so that Hezbollah will beg the Iranians to stop.

Conversely, this could also bring the Iranians to be flexible in negotiations with the Americans, after a month and a half of their insistence and American backing down. In such a case, Trump would also appreciate it, and Israel would again earn points with him for initiative and boldness that change reality. Trump always likes to take credit for others’ successes, and this is not bad for Israel.

Smotrich suggests saving the armaments and efforts against Iran for the moment when we decide to go after the energy infrastructures that will paralyze Iran and cripple its economy. In his opinion, it is a shame to waste capabilities on exchanges of blows within standard equations. In cost-benefit tests, strikes in nearby Lebanon are much more efficient than strikes in distant Iran that are not part of a comprehensive move where you go all the way without limitations.

An interesting thesis. Even more interesting if Netanyahu adopts it or if he has another ace up his sleeve.

(Amit Segal)